As we move toward March Madness, it’s good to take inventory of every team that has realistic expectations of running through the bracket.
Are six straight wins to end the season within the range of outcomes for Iowa State?
Iowa State Cyclones March Madness Profile
This preseason, Iowa State was tabbed as the 16th-best team in the country, and that felt about right. We knew they had talent, but how much higher could expectations realistically be for a program that hasn’t reached the Elite Eight since the 1999-2000 season (shout out to Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley)?
As it turns out, much higher.
This is a legitimate title threat, and they proved as much with home wins over Kansas and Houston in a three-day stretch. In those victories, they allowed just one 30-point half, sent their opponent to the line just 26 times total, and didn’t surrender a single point in transition (nine turnovers across those 80 minutes certainly helps).
T.J. Otzelberger has proven himself to be a great coach, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that in his fifth year at the program, he’s shaped the roster to his liking.
The Cyclones are led by three upperclassmen, all of whom started and averaged double digits for this team a season ago.
Tamin Lipsey gets the least press of the trio, but a 6-foot-1 guard who shoots 57% on twos and hands out nearly four assists for every turnover has the ability to swing games, even if it’s not via SportsCenter Top 10 plays.
Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic are the two names you’ve likely come across more over the past few months, a potent duo that combines for over 35 points a night. Both are experienced assassins who have leveled up as shooters as their usage rates have spiked.
That’s a lethal combination, and with neither too turnover-prone, the ball is safe in their hands for as often as it is.
If I had to nitpick, there is a little two-points-of-failure concern with this offense: if Jefferson or Momcilovic is off, things have the potential to spiral on that side of the court.
That flaw, however, is often mitigated by a stingy defense that boasts an elite steal rate, thus allowing them to turn opponent mistakes into high-percentage looks, an elixir for any offense that is stuck in the mud.
They may lack the standout recruit (freshman Killyan Toure has a strong assist-to-turnover ratio and rebounds well for the position, but he’s not the game-breaker first-year player that many of the Tier 1 teams have access to) or the name-brand program, but leaving this team out of your title tier is a mistake.
A major mistake.